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U.S. dairy exports continue to grow

Spectacular development in cheese, whey and lactose keep momentum.

Whereas we’ve all turned our calendars to 2023, the publication of U.S. commerce information barely lags present circumstances. Even nonetheless, the simply revealed November 2022 information confirmed U.S. dairy exports will definitely set one other document in 2022 and are ready to maintain on rising into 2023.

In milk solids equal (MSE) quantity, U.S. dairy exports expanded by 9% (+16,011 MT) in November, placing year-to-date (YTD) exports up 4% (+94,924 MT MSE) for a complete of two.2 million MT MSE. In worth phrases, the U.S. had already set the annual document in October, however a 23% development in November (+$148 million) remains to be price celebrating.

General, the dependable development of cheese (+13%, +4,282 MT) and whey merchandise (+17%, +8,018 MT) saved U.S. volumes on their optimistic trajectory in November. Each merchandise might be mentioned in additional depth under. Butter (+160%, +5,192 MT) and lactose (+9%, +3,189 MT) additionally shone. Of the key product classes, solely NFDM/SMP (-3%, -2,185 MT) and fluid milk/cream (-25%, -3,383 MT) fell.


Go to USDEC’s Information Hub for extra detailed data

Trying forward, with delivery circumstances significantly improved in contrast thus far final 12 months, milk manufacturing increasing and worldwide demand in key markets holding regular or rising, we anticipate U.S. dairy exports to proceed 2022’s success into 2023 although there will definitely be loads of challenges forward. For this month’s report, let’s spotlight the optimistic with two success tales: cheese and whey.

U.S. cheese exports set one other month-to-month document in November

U.S. cheese exports prolonged their year-over-year (YOY) development streak to 17 straight months in November. The USA shipped 37,495 MT of cheese to abroad markets, a 13% enhance over the earlier 12 months and simply a November document. In reality, each month since February 2022 has been a brand new quantity document for cheese exports for the respective month.

Main U.S. cheddar and gouda consumers led November positive factors, with general cheese shipments to Japan rising 56% (+1,424 MT), Australia rising 56% (+1,432 MT) and Mexico gaining 15% (+1,370 MT).

Cheddar, gouda and different pure cheese underneath HS 0406.90 have fueled U.S. cheese export quantity all 12 months, and the story in November was no totally different. Yr-to-date by means of November, U.S. cheddar exports had been up 60% (+29,785 MT) whereas all different pure cheese exports underneath 0406.90 grew 21% (+18,151 MT).

November additionally benefitted from the continued rebound in U.S. grated cheese exports, which is predominantly mozzarella/pizza cheese. U.S. grated cheese exports had been down 9% over the primary seven months of the 12 months, however from August-November, they rose 12%, with November displaying the most important enhance. U.S. shipments of grated cheese rose 27% (+1,954 MT) for the month, supported by sturdy gross sales to Central America and the Center East.

Complete U.S. cheese gross sales to Central America rose 12% YOY in November (+370 MT), with grated cheese gross sales to the area greater than doubling (+868 MT). Equally, general U.S. cheese gross sales to the Center East jumped 80% (+1,175 MT) in November, with grated cheese gross sales to the area greater than tripling (+732 MT).

Trying forward, we’re nonetheless cautiously optimistic concerning the coming 12 months. We proceed to see development forward, however a rebound in EU milk manufacturing, financial components that assist cheese analogue use in Latin America and doubtlessly tighter U.S. exportable cheese provides will seemingly decrease the double-digit development price we’ve seen for a lot of 2022.

Whey exports to China soar

U.S. whey exports elevated 17% (+8,018 MT) in November, as an enormous enhance to China (+71%, +11,948 MT) helped offset declines in different areas. Yr-to-date, U.S. whey exports had been up 8% (+44,996 MT), with a lot of the expansion, particularly within the first a part of the 12 months, coming from low-protein whey.

Nevertheless, extra lately, we’ve got seen a pointy bounce in high-protein whey exports as U.S. inventories ballooned amid weaker home purchases pushing U.S. producers to look more and more towards export markets. Corresponding with weaker home demand, costs have additionally eased. U.S. WPC80 and WPI costs have fallen roughly 40% since Could which, when paired with weaker home purchases, has allowed larger export alternative as many worldwide importers balked on the excessive costs earlier within the 12 months or bought decreased volumes.

On the commodity aspect, Chinese language whey imports have been on a rebound since late summer season and have been pushed by greater pork costs which incentivize larger whey use in hog feed to speed up manufacturing and development. We’ve talked about this demand think about earlier stories, however a more moderen growth has been the sturdy worth correction in Chinese language pork costs since late November.

Pork costs topped out simply shy of ¥42/kg in November however have since come all the way down to ¥33/kg. Whereas nonetheless greater than the roughly ¥25/kg common worth seen all through 2021 and within the years previous to African Swine Fever-induced worth volatility, that ¥33/kg worth will seemingly begin to soften demand transferring ahead, particularly as pork provide preparations upfront of Chinese language New Yr have all however concluded. We may even see continued development in Chinese language whey demand into 2023, however as we transition into Q2 of subsequent 12 months, anticipate decrease pork costs to cap quantity development in comparison with what we’ve got seen during the last a number of months.

Chart2 (2)-Jan-05-2023-07-56-43-8971-PM

rn extra about world dairy markets:

The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative business partnerships with processors, buying and selling corporations and others to reinforce world demand for U.S. dairy merchandise and components. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Administration Inc. by means of the dairy farmer checkoff. How you can republish this put up.  



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